Category Archives: B6025 recent

Argosy B6025 Module 3 Assignment 2 Required Assignment 1 The S’No Risk Program recent

Argosy B6025 Module 3 Assignment 2 Required Assignment 1 The S’No Risk Program recent

 

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In the mid-eighties, the Toro company launched a promotion in which snow blower purchasers could refund a portion of their purchase if the next winter brought modest snowfalls. The amount of their refund was tied to snowfall amounts and so, the program was prey to certain risks and uncertainties. You will explore those risks and choices from a variety of perspectives.

Review the case study “The Toro Company S’No Risk Program” by David E. Bell (1994) from this module’s assigned readings. Click here to download the Toro Excel worksheet which contains data exhibits from the article; the exhibit titles match the tabs long the bottom of the worksheet. Use this tool to conduct your data analysis for this assignment.

 

Analyze the risks of the program from the following points of view:

 

Toro

The insurance company

The consumers

Write a 6–8-page analysis paper that addresses the following:

 

Why did the insurance company raise the rates so much? How would you estimate a fair insurance rate?

From the perspective of the consumer, how were the paybacks structured and how might they be restructured to entice you at an equal or lower cost of insurance? How does the program influence your decision to purchase?

What are the common decision traps which each group in point (2) is susceptible to? Develop a matrix or decision tree in order to compare the groups. How does the program impact the consumer’s “regret”? (Hint: Map the possible outcomes for the consumer.)

 

From either Toro’s or the insurance company’s perspective, how would you frame your argument to achieve your desired objective?

Was the program successful? Why or why not?

If you were Dick Pollick, would you repeat the program? Assume you manage the S’No Risk program and argue your case. To what biases are you susceptible in this case?

Submit your analysis paper in Word format. Apply APA standards to citation of sources. Use the following file naming convention: LastnameFirstInitial_M3_A2.doc.

 

Argosy B6025 Module 1 Assignment 3 Moneyball recent

Argosy B6025 Module 1 Assignment 3 Moneyball recent

 

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Moneyball, a book by Michael Lewis (2003), highlights how creativity, framing, and robust technical analysis all played a part in the development of a recent approach to talent management in baseball. It also exhibited great examples of the biases and psychological pitfalls that plague decision makers.

 

Review the article “Who’s on First?” by Thaler & Sunstein (2003) from this module’s assigned readings. This article reviews the book Moneyball by Michael Lewis.

 

Write a critique of the article including the following points:

 

Examine why sabermetric-based player evaluation is such a shock to other executives in baseball.

 

Evaluate why Beane is much more effective in his success by constructing a matrix of pitfalls and heuristics that highlight the differences between Beane’s team and other executives.

 

Moneyball highlights how people tend to overestimate the likelihood of success and end up facing financial loss—in this case, it meant forfeiting millions of dollars. Analyze a professional or personal decision (yours or otherwise) that highlights this predilection in spite of substantial losses.

 

Explain how you would apply Moneyball’s management lessons in your own endeavors.

 

Write a 3–5-page paper in Word format. Apply APA standards to citation of sources. Use the following file naming convention: LastnameFirstInitial_M1_A3.doc

 

Argosy B6025 Module 1 Assignment 2 Munger’s Mental Models recent

Argosy B6025 Module 1 Assignment 2 Munger’s Mental Models recent

 

 

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In his article “A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom as it Relates to Investment Management & Business,” Charles Munger (1995) wrote about tools, techniques, and critical skills that great managers need to develop.

 

Consider Munger’s thoughts on the importance of mental models. Respond to the following:

 

In your own words, describe what Munger means by mental models.

Examine how Munger’s concept of mental models has changed your ideas of decision making in investment management and business.

 

Describe at least one example from your own experience where your perspective or experience provided a mode of thought that brought recent light to a discussion or a tough decision.

 

Explain how this experience has affected your decision-making process.

 

Argosy B6025 Module 2 Assignment 2 Decision Making Gone Awry recent

Argosy B6025 Module 2 Assignment 2 Decision Making Gone Awry recent

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Sometimes social influences and societal pressures can influence decision making for the better and sometimes for the worse. In addition to these pressures, there are risks that need to be evaluated and measured when making decisions. In this assignment, you will reflect on decisions you made using social influence, persuasion, and risk taking that went awry.

 

Examine a time when you were involved in decision making that went awry as a result of protocols, social norms, or persuasive techniques. If you do not want to use an example from your business or personal experience, you can select a journal article on which you can base your assignment. Here are some key words to help you find an article for this assignment:

 

Decision making

Risk taking

Persuasion

Social heuristics

Write a 3–5-page paper in Word format that addresses the following:

 

Describe a decision-making scenario using your business experience, personal decision making or cited journal article; include an example of the decision-making process, describe the risk, and whether persuasion was used. What were the social heuristics?

Explain the incentives in this scenario. Were they effective?

Identify the risks and the potential decision biases in your scenario. Propose the corrective steps that should have been taken to overcome these biases. If a risk assessment was conducted how did this affect the decision-making process?

Analyze your scenario for what happened in terms of social heuristics. Explain how decisions were made and the social factors that shaped the decision-making environment.

 

Discuss the greatest challenges to sound decision-making in your scenario.

Critique the decision-making process used by the sponsor(s) and leader(s) of the decision. Identify the mistakes made by the sponsor(s), leader(s), and team members or others impacted by the decision during the implementation of the decision.

 

Support your statements with scholarly references and appropriate examples. Apply APA standards to citation of sources. Use the following file naming convention: LastnameFirstInitial_M2_A2.doc.

 

Argosy B6025 Module 3 Assignment 1Behavioral Heuristics recent

Argosy B6025 Module 3 Assignment 1Behavioral Heuristics recent

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B6025 Module 3 Assignment 1Behavioral Heuristics recent

 

Argosy B6025 Module 4 Assignment 1 The Power of Groups recent

Argosy B6025 Module 4 Assignment 1 The Power of Groups recent

 

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B6025 Module 4 Assignment 1 The Power of Groups recent

Argosy B6025 Module 4 Assignment 2 Expected Value and Consumer Choices recent

Argosy B6025 Module 4 Assignment 2 Expected Value and Consumer Choices recent

 

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Consumers’ choices are prey to subtle discrepancies that arise in cognitive accounting. Learning how and when you are prey to these discrepancies is an important step in improving your decision making.

 

As the readings for this module demonstrate, people value gains and losses differently under different scenarios. For example, contestants in a game show might choose a guaranteed $10 prize over a 50 percent chance of winning $20 despite the fact that the expected values are the same.

 

Using the readings for this module, the Argosy University online library resources, and the Internet, address the following:

 

What is mental accounting and how does it impact consumer decision making?

How might a company take advantage of consumers’ mental accounting? Give examples.

As a marketer, how might you frame certain decisions to benefit from the disparities that arise in one’s cognitive accounting?

As a consumer, how would you avoid the pitfalls posed by the inequalities of one’s cognitive accounting?

Write a 3–5-page paper in Word format. Apply APA standards to citation of sources. Use the following file

 

Argosy B6025 Module 5 Assignment 1 Required Assignment 2 The Case For, or Against, New Orleans recent

Argosy B6025 Module 5 Assignment 1 Required Assignment 2 The Case For, or Against, New Orleans recent

 

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Review the following information from the article “A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the New Orleans Flood Protection System” by Stéphane Hallegatte (2005):

Hallegatte, an environmentalist, assigns a probability (p) of a Katrina-like hurricane of 1/130 in his cost-benefit analysis for flood protection. However, the levees that protect New Orleans also put other regions at greater risk. You may assume the frequency of other floods is greater than Katrina-like events (Vastag& Rein, 2011).

The recent levees that were built in response to Katrina cost approximately fourteen billion dollars (in 2010). This is in addition to the direct costs of Katrina (eighty-one billion dollars in 2005).

50 percent of New Orleans is at or below sea level.
A 100-year event means that there is a 63 percent chance that such an event will occur within a 100-year period.
The following are the interested (anchored and/or biased) constituencies:
Residents of New Orleans—both those that can move and those who cannot move
Residents of the surrounding floodplains at risk from New Orleans levees
The Mayor of New Orleans
The federal government—specifically taxpayers and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
Assume that the availability heuristics make people more risk averse (populations drop, at least in the short term). Consider how this would affect the local economy.

You are an analyst at FEMA and are in charge of developing a recommendation for both the state and the local governments on whether or not to redevelop New Orleans.

Write a report with your recommendation. Address the following in your report:

Part A

Analyze the economics of New Orleans in light of the above parameters and develop your own Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) for rebuilding.
Evaluate the value of the CBA for each constituency and integrate these estimates into a scenario model and/or decision tree. Analyze the results.
Clearly each of these constituencies may both overlap and be prey to a variety of group dynamics internally. For one of these options, discuss the decision pitfalls to which they may be susceptible and make a recommendation on how to alleviate these pressures.
Starting with your CBA, estimate the relevant expected utility for the interested constituencies.
Note: You need not have absolute amounts but your relevant utilities should be proportional to one another.

Hint: If you assume that your total CBA for New Orleans is fixed for each constituency (do not forget the overlaps), then each constituency will have a piece of the utility pie.

Part B

Make a case for or against rebuilding the city of New Orleans. This should be an executive summary; be concise and brief. Include exhibits.
Whether you are for or against, discuss how social heuristics could be used to your advantage, both ethically and unethically, in making your case. You may choose to fill the role of one of the constituents, if you prefer.
Write an 8–12-page report in Word format. Apply APA standards to citation of sources. Use proper spelling and grammar throughout, and keep the text legible and balanced with visuals. Use the following file naming convention: LastnameFirstInitial_M5_A1.doc.

By Saturday, February 14, 2015, deliver your assignment to the M5: Assignment 1 Dropbox.

Hallegatte, S. (2006). A cost-benefit analysis of the New Orleans flood protection system. Center for Environmental Sciences and Policy. Stanford University. Retrieved from

http://hal.cirad.fr/docs/00/16/46/28/PDF/Hallegatte_NewOrleans_CBA9.pdf

Vastag, B., & Rein, L. (2011, May 11). In Louisiana, a choice between two floods. The Washington Post. Retrieved from

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/in-louisiana-a-choice-between-two-

floods/2011/05/11/AFrjFotG_story.html